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Delphi technique

Synonyms: Estimate-Talk-Estimate, ETE, Structured Communication Method

The Delphi method is an interactive forecasting method based on the assessments of a group of experts, which can be obtained both in person and in absentia. The technology based on face-to-face communication is known as Mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate.

The Delphi method is widely used for business forecasting. It is based on the principle that predictive estimates from structured expert groups are more accurate than unstructured ones. For example, the group can be structured into internal experts of the company and experts invited from outside.

In the process of implementing the method, experts answer lists of questions in several rounds. After each round, a person called the “mediator” provides participants with an anonymous summary of the experts' responses from the previous round, as well as the reasons why they are making their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to clarify or revise their previous responses in the light of responses from other members of their group.

It is believed that in the course of this process, the scatter of estimates will decrease, and the estimates themselves will tend to the true one. The process stops after the specified stopping criterion is reached - the number of rounds, reaching a consensus (when the assessments become the same), the sustainability of the results (the experts' assessments stop changing). The result is then determined as the average of the marks obtained in the final round.

The main idea of \u200b\u200bthe Delphi Method is to enable experts to focus on the problems at hand and avoid mutual influence (if, for example, an expert knows that together in a group there is a recognized authority in this field, he may unconsciously begin to adjust to his opinion). Expert groups are made up of both company employees and external specialists.

The key properties of the Delphi method are:

Anonymity of participants... The identity of the experts is not disclosed even after the completion of the final report. This avoids the influence of the authority and reputation of some participants on others, when an expert makes a judgment not because he thinks so himself, but because a more authoritative and experienced colleague thinks so. Anonymity also frees participants from personal bias, minimizes the "bandwagon effect", promotes free expression, encourages open criticism, and makes it easier to admit mistakes when revising previous judgments.
Structuring information flows... The original answers of the experts are collected in the form of answers to questions and their comments on these answers. The mediator manages the interactions between the participants, processing information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids negative consequences face-to-face discussions.
Regular feedback ... The Delphi Method allows participants to comment on the responses of colleagues, the work of the group as a whole, and revise their predictions and opinions in real time.
The role of the mediator... The mediator sends out questionnaires and instructions for completing them, collects and analyzes the answers, then identifies common and conflicting points of view. Checks the conditions for stopping the process, and if they are met, stops the process.

The first applications of the Delphi method were in the field of forecasting the development of science and technology. The goal was to bring together expert opinions on the expected time to develop a particular technology.

Other names of the method: "Delphic method", "Delphic oracle method".

Method purpose

Applied during the Problem Formulation and Assessment Phases different ways its solutions. The Delphi method is one of the tools for choosing and evaluating a solution.

The purpose of the method

Obtaining consistent information high degree reliability in the process of anonymous exchange of views between the members of the expert group to make a decision.

Method essence

The Delphi Method is a tool that allows to take into account the independent opinion of all members of the expert group on the issue under discussion by consistently combining ideas, conclusions and proposals and come to an agreement. The method is based on multiple anonymous group interviews.

Action plan

Form a working group to collect and summarize expert opinions.
Form an expert group of specialists who know the questions on the topic under discussion.
Prepare a questionnaire, indicating the problem posed in it, clarifying questions. The wording should be clear and unambiguously interpreted, suggest unambiguous answers.
Conduct a survey of experts in accordance with the methodology, which, if necessary, repeats the procedure. The received answers serve as a basis for formulating questions for the next stage.
Summarize expert opinions and issue recommendations on the problem posed.

Features of the method

Delphi "," Delphic method "," Delphic oracle method "come from the name of the place Delphi, where oracles-diviners lived at the temple of the god Apollo (Ancient Greece).

The word of the chief oracle was taken as the ultimate truth.

It is known that the use of collective knowledge leads to the possibility of finding strong solutions, but in the process of exchanging opinions between participants, the influence of the authority of colleagues can affect and everything will come down to the emergence of popular answers.

Delphi's method allows us to resolve this dialectical contradiction. For this, direct expert discussions are replaced by individual polls. The collected answer options are subjected to statistical processing. The received generalized answers are transmitted to each expert by personal communication, or by regular or e-mail with a request to reconsider and clarify his opinion, if he considers it necessary. This procedure can be repeated several times.

Expertise according to the Delphi method

Additional Information:

The Delphi Method is a systematic way of summarizing expert assessments.
It is believed that the Delphi method is most applicable if experts who are competent not on the whole problem, but on its various components are involved in the work.
To decide whether to use the Delphi method, it is very important to carefully consider the situation to which the method will be applied. And before making a decision, you need to ask a number of questions:

who will conduct the examination and where will its participants be located;
what kind of communication should be maintained with them in the process of considering the existing problem;
what alternative techniques are available and what results can you realistically expect from their use?

Advantages of the method

The Delphi method contributes to the development of independent thinking of group members.
Provides a calm and objective study of issues that require assessment.

Disadvantages of the method

Excessive subjectivity of assessments.
It takes a lot of time and organizational effort.

Expected Result

A coherent list of ideas with their accompanying strengths and weaknesses.

Today there are many different methods for choosing and evaluating the effectiveness of solutions. One of the most famous and popular is the Delphi method, which is also called the Delphic method or the Delphi oracle method. It can be successfully used not only in management or other professional field, but also in everyday life... Let's see what it is and how you can use it.

It is a method that allows you to quickly find solutions to a particular problem. These decisions are generated during a brainstorming session by a team of experts. The purpose of the methodology is to select the best solutions that can subsequently be applied in practice. The selection of solutions is carried out by the method of expert assessments.

In the course of using the methodology, it is possible to collect individual assessments of experts, generalize and process them, and as a result get a reliable and reliable general opinion. The work is done through brainstorming, interviews and surveys. It is believed that independent experts can more effectively evaluate the result than a specially structured group. Since independent experts are usually unfamiliar with each other, the risks of personal influences are excluded.

The Delphi method was developed in the USA in the middle of the last century. It was created to predict the impact of future technological advances on the methods of warfare. The method was founded by the American strategic research center "RAND". The authorship is attributed to its main developers - Olaf Halmer, Norman Dalkey and Nicholas Resher. The name comes from the name of the Delphic oracle.

Over time, this method has become widespread in many Western countries. On his example, other, no less effective techniques were developed. Many companies began to use the Delphic method for strategic planning. In Russia, it is used quite rarely, because there are no specialists who can implement it.

How is the Delphi method applied in practice?

To carry out the methodology, two groups of participants are required. The first group consists of experts who give their opinion on the issue under consideration. The second group consists of analysts who are called upon to study the opinions of experts and, on the basis of them, identify the optimal solution to the problem. The Delphi method is carried out in several stages. Let's consider each of them.

The first stage is preparatory

At this stage, it is necessary to assemble an expert group. The number of participants can be any, however, experts recommend inviting no more than 20 people to the group. This amount is considered optimal.

The second stage is the main work

After the expert group is formed, a task is set before it that needs to be solved. Experts should familiarize themselves with the main task and break it down into several smaller ones. Analysts need to select the most pressing questions and draw up a questionnaire based on them.

The finished questionnaire is again handed over to the expert group. After studying it, participants can suggest adding something else, add additional data to it. As a result, you should get 20 detailed answers (according to the number of participants in the expert group). After that, the analysts must draw up another questionnaire, which is again presented to the experts.

The experts are studying the new questionnaire and suggesting solutions to the problem. At this stage, the effectiveness, the availability of resources for resolving the issue, and methods of solution are assessed. Having studied the opinions of experts, analysts need to single out the main ones and try to find their points of contact. Options that do not fit into the general concept are voiced to experts, after which they can reconsider their opinions.

These stages are repeated until the experts come to a consensus. Differences in opinion help analysts discover some of the nuances in solving a problem and take them into account. At the end, analysts should make an overall assessment and, on its basis, propose a plan for solving the initially set problem.

The third stage is analytical

After the main work is done, it is necessary to check the consistency of the experts' opinions, research and analyze the information received and come up with the best way to solve the problem.

Features of the Delphi method

A distinctive feature of the Delphic method is that it is carried out anonymously, in absentia and is multilevel.

Anonymous and absentee procedure allows to exclude the influence of the opinion of the most authoritative members of the expert group on the opinion of the rest of its members. The survey can be carried out extraterritorially using special questionnaires that can be sent by regular or e-mail. Multilevel polls ensure objectivity and high reliability of the result.

Effective use of the Delphi method presupposes the mandatory fulfillment of certain conditions:

the questions in the questionnaire should be designed in such a way that they cannot be understood in two ways; clarity and unambiguity is required;
experts should be able to write down answers not only in words, but also in the form of numbers;
the members of the expert group should be provided with all the necessary information that allows them to understand the essence of the task;
experts must substantiate each of their answers;
the stability of the expert group and the optimal number of its members are important;
the intervals between the stages of surveys should not exceed one month;
it is necessary to carry out as many stages of the survey as required in order for each expert to understand the essence of the problem and conduct a qualitative assessment;
a systematic selection of experts is necessary;
it is important to have a clear formula by which estimates will be agreed.

As mentioned above, two groups participate in the procedure - expert and analytical. The first group deals with the generation of ideas, the second - their analysis and criticism. The organizers should try to expand the discussion in order to achieve best result... Any criticism is allowed during the discussion.

The discussion process takes place under the guidance of the facilitator. The facilitator should have a friendly attitude towards the group members. It is important that he treats all participants equally and impartially. Also, he should not incline the course of the discussion in any particular direction, not impose his opinion, so as not to introduce distortions. The main goal is to get the most reliable data.

Disadvantages of the method

Despite its effectiveness and many advantages, the Delphic method has a number of disadvantages that should be taken into account by those wishing to carry it out. These include the following difficulties:

The powers of the organizers of the procedure significantly exceed the powers of the experts, which puts them in an unequal position.
The group opinion is far from correct in all cases.
Analysts, as a rule, reject non-standard proposals for solving a given problem, although it is precisely such solutions that are conceived that allow you to achieve the best result.
It is not possible to conduct a brief operational analysis, since the final stage the procedure requires a long period of time: each stage of the analysis usually lasts no more than a day.
The panelists will unconsciously seek to join the majority opinion.
Organizers can influence experts by manipulating them.

These shortcomings were noticed immediately after the appearance of the Delphi method. Experts suggested eliminating them using a number of actions:

the number of organizers should include people belonging to different strata of society and spheres of activity;
in order to obtain the most reliable data, it is necessary to conduct an event to solve the same problem in several groups;
do not discard non-standard solutions, they also need to be considered, at least as additional options.

The Delphic method can be applied not only in forecasting or in making management decisions, but also in ordinary life, to solve certain problems. If you want to decide to find a solution to any issue and evaluate its effectiveness, you can try using the proposed method.

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Among the tools available today for selecting and evaluating the effectiveness of solutions, a special place is occupied by the Delphic method, or, as it is also called, the Delphi method. It is very effective both in everyday life and in the professional sphere of activity, because it allows you to take into account the views of all people who are relevant to any issue, through a consistent combination of considerations, suggestions and conclusions, and then come to a specific agreement. The Delphic method is easy to use, and any person or group of people can use it, it is only important to know how it is done.

Delphi method

The Delphi method was developed in the 50-60s of the XX century in the USA. Its main task was to predict the impact scientific developments future on the methods of warfare. The method was developed by the American strategic research center "RAND", and its authors are considered to be Olaf Halmer, Norman Dalkey and Nicholas Rescher. By the way, the name comes from the name of the Delphic Oracle.

Features and essence of the Delphi method

Considering that the Delphi method is an expert appraising method, its main features are anonymity, multilevel and correspondence. The basic premise is the idea that if you properly generalize and process the individual assessments of experts about a particular situation, you can get a general opinion that will have the maximum degree of reliability and reliability.

The meaning of the method is to find a way to determine the correct solution with the help of a set of certain actions, such as polls. The method is based on the fact that a certain group of independent experts is much better able to evaluate and predict the result than a structured group of people. Taking into account the fact that independent experts may not even know about each other, it is possible to exclude a clash of different positions, as well as a collective influence due to working together and conformism. Plus, the method can be carried out anywhere, regardless of the location of the participants.

Two groups of people take part in the process of using the Delphic Method:

The first group consists of experts presenting their point of view on the problem under study.
The second group consists of analysts who bring expert opinions to a common denominator

The Delphi method itself involves several stages.

Stages of the Delphi method

There are three stages in total - the preliminary stage, the main stage and the analytical stage.

Preliminary stage

At the first stage, an expert group is selected. It can include any number of people, but it is recommended to form a group of 20 people and no more.

The main stage

In the second stage, the following steps are performed:

The problem is posed - the experts get the main question, and their task is to break it down into not several smaller ones. Analysts select the most common questions and create a general questionnaire.
The resulting questionnaire is again presented to the experts. They should tell you if something else needs to be added, if there is enough data, if there is some additional information on the problem. Thus, we get 20 answers (depending on the number of experts) with detailed information. Analysts compose another questionnaire.
The new questionnaire is again presented to the experts. Now they need to offer their own solutions to the problem and explore alternative positions of other experts. It evaluates the effectiveness, availability of resources, the relevance of solutions. Analysts highlight the main opinions of experts and try to bring them closer together. If someone's opinions are at odds with the opinion of the majority, these opinions are voiced to experts. As a result, experts can change their positions, after which this step is repeated again.
The steps are repeated over and over until the experts come to a consensus and a consensus is established. And a study by analysts of discrepancies in the opinions of members of the expert group can point to subtleties of the problem that were not noticed before. In the end, an overall assessment is made and practical recommendations are made to solve the problem.

Analytical stage

And already at the third stage, the consistency of experts' opinions is checked, the findings are analyzed and the final recommendations are developed.

Along with the presented structure of the Delphic method, there are other modifications. The most common of these involves a structureless stage. This modification is used in the event that the research is aimed at finding something specific, and the organizers of the research are not able to immediately present the problem in the form of specialized questions. In this case, already at the stage of formulating the problem, an expert group is involved.

Another modification of the Delphi method is aimed at reducing the time that will be spent on the analytical stage - it is called "Express Delphi". Taking into account the fact that the traditional method with all its advantages is quite laborious and requires a significant amount of time for its application, the express method allows you to save all the basic elements of the method, despite the fact that the entire procedure can be carried out within a few hours, however, a special technical base is required ...

Each member of the expert group is at the computer during the allotted time period. All computers are connected by one common network, which is closed on the event leader. After experts offer their solutions in a fast-paced manner, analysts should similarly make estimates as quickly as possible. A huge role in this process is played by efficiency in the processing and systematization of the material.

But the Espress-Delph method has one significant drawback: if you compare it with the classical method, experts do not have the opportunity to properly think over the task assigned to them, as well as objectively assess the points of view and arguments of other participants. In addition, the difficulty lies in the provision of special equipment. For this reason, experts advise using the usual variation of the Delphic method.

Despite the convenience of using the Delphi method and its effectiveness, some of its disadvantages should be noted, which cannot be ignored.

Disadvantages of the Delphi Method

First, it is important to say that from the very beginning, i.e. Since the beginning of the 60s of the last century, the Delphi method has been subjected to rather serious criticism. In particular, it was said that:

Event organizers have excessive powers compared to experts, which means that experts can be considered defenseless in a sense.
is not true in all cases
Analysts reject creative solutions that have the least number of supporters, and these solutions may be the most effective
Operational analysis is impossible, because the last step takes a long time: each step of the analysis can take at least 24 hours
Experts tend to be conformist by being tempted and eager to join the majority
The organizers have the ability to manipulate the expert group

It was also proposed to eliminate the presented shortcomings using the following means:

Organizers should be selected from different structures and belong to different social and scientific directions
The same problem needs to be channeled through different groups
It is necessary to take into account even the most alternative and creative options for solving the problem, at least as an addition

The Delphi method has become widespread in the West - many companies in which they pay great attention to strategic issues began to use it in their activities. In particular, these are companies engaged primarily in the field of technological development, business and futurology. In Russia, however, the method was used and is applied extremely rarely, because Firstly, the country does not have such a tradition and specialists in this method, there are no independent analytical structures, and the analytical activity itself for a long time was of a centralized nature, in other words, the experts tried to adapt to the opinion of the majority.

However, this in no way diminishes the merits of the Delphi method, and if in your life and work you need to find out by what method you can solve a problem and evaluate the effectiveness of this method, you can safely use the Delphi method. Moreover, it can be considered not only effective, but also a creative approach to solving any problems.